China's diesel exports in November are expected to reach 800,000 tons, a significant decrease from 1.33 million tons in August and 1.8 million tons in September. This decline occurs due to a drop in domestic inventories resulting from increased fuel shipments at the end of summer.
Details of Diesel Exports in November
According to estimates, Chinese refineries have sold about 500,000 tons of diesel for loading in November so far. Refineries have not yet finalized loading contracts for the second half of November, but total diesel shipments for this month are expected to reach around 800,000 tons.
Impact of China's Fuel Export Policies
China's fuel export policies have been variable since the beginning of this year due to the Middle East crisis and supply constraints on oil and fuel. Authorities and refineries have prioritized domestic supply, which is why fuel exports were limited between April and July. China's fuel exports in August reached 6.01 million tons of petroleum products, reflecting a 12.7 percent increase compared to last year, after Beijing lifted fuel export restrictions in mid-July.
The total volume of China's fuel exports in August exceeded pre-war levels, and jet fuel exports reached an all-time high. Foreign shipments remained strong in September, but in October, exports fell early in the month due to China's one-week holiday and then resumed again from October 9.
Last week, China increased its refinery product export quota, with the fourth-quarter export quota reaching 20.44 million tons, a 44 percent increase compared to last year. However, GL Consulting analysts warn that the additional quota space does not mean an immediate increase in physical exports. Before the new allocation, it was expected that China's November export plan would decrease compared to the previous month.
Despite the new quota, there may be positive adjustments in export forecasts, but the monthly plan is still being adjusted.
