The price of Brent oil reached $118 per barrel today. This price increase has occurred following recent tensions in the Middle East, an attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns about disruptions in oil exports. As the price approaches the peak of $126 recorded in April 2026, the question arises whether the upward trend will continue.
Middle East Tensions and Their Impact on the Oil Market
Attacks on oil tankers and claims by the Houthis of attacking Saudi Arabian oil facilities have heightened concerns about supply shortages. Traders are worried that an escalation in conflicts could lead to reduced oil exports from Middle Eastern countries. Currently, the price of Brent oil is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly increase and has risen about 13% since the beginning of October 2023.
U.S. Actions and Oil Reserves Status
The U.S. government has announced that it will lend an additional 40 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves to oil companies. This action is part of an international plan to increase oil supply and control prices. However, according to reports, U.S. strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1982. If oil exports from the Middle East face further disruptions, the U.S. will not have sufficient capacity to compensate for the supply shortage.
Technical Analysis and Price Forecast
According to technical analysis by StoneX, the range of $110 to $118 is very important for determining the next direction of Brent oil prices. If prices decrease, support levels of $108 and $101 should also be monitored. On the other hand, stabilizing prices above the resistance of $118 could increase the likelihood of further growth. The peak of $126.41 in April 2026 is also one of the potential targets for the market if buying pressure continues.
Future Predictions and Possible Scenarios
In the latest survey, the average price forecast for Brent oil for 2026 has increased from $89.05 to $92.88. This figure is an annual average and should not be considered as the predicted price for the next month. Given the state of oil supply and tensions in the Middle East, three scenarios are proposed for the coming weeks: if tensions decrease and exports return to normal, Brent prices will fall. However, if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, the likelihood of prices returning to previous peaks will increase.
