The price of Brent oil rose by 4% yesterday, reaching over $113 per barrel. This price increase is primarily due to concerns regarding oil supply and geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, which could pose a threat to oil flows.
New Developments in the Persian Gulf
Reports indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering new attacks on Iran, while the U.S. military presence in the region is being strengthened with the deployment of another aircraft carrier. These developments do not present an optimistic picture, and concerns about escalating tensions have once again increased. However, some sources have reported that U.S. forces have withdrawn from several bases in the Middle East.
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Impact on the Oil Market and Predictions
These developments have challenged previous expectations of reduced tensions and normalization of prices. Currently, the average price of Brent oil is expected to reach $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, but given the intensifying tensions, this prediction seems unattainable. Even if tensions do not escalate again, the possibility of this issue could impose significant geopolitical risks on prices.
At the same time, natural gas prices in Europe are also highly sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf. LNG flows in the market are expected to be almost absent for a significant portion of the Northern Hemisphere winter. The TTF gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility) also rose by 3% yesterday, reaching over €90 per megawatt-hour, the highest level since December 2022. EU gas reserves have also reached about 75% and have slightly decreased on Tuesday.
Impact on Metal and Gold Markets
The price of gold has also come under pressure due to rising energy prices and concerns over increasing inflation rates. Gold prices have decreased by 2.8%, nearing $4,000 per ounce. The gold market appears to be more focused on high oil prices and their impact on inflation and central bank monetary policies. Given that U.S. inflation rates are still above the central bank's 2% target, rising energy prices could intensify price pressures and provide further reasons for tighter monetary policies.
In the copper market, prices have faced a decline of more than 1.9% for the second consecutive day. Increased inventory levels and sales of AI-related stocks have affected overall risk sentiment in the market. LME data shows that copper inventories have increased by 27,675 tons for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 272,950 tons, the highest level since July 27, 2026.
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