Global oil product attacks from August 1 to October 15, 2026, have decreased to 237.07 million tons, representing a 10.9% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline is primarily due to a 12.1% drop in clean oil products, which have reached 186.75 million tons. In the meantime, a sharp decrease in naphtha attacks by 23.7% is observed, followed by jet fuel at 14.5% and diesel at 10.3%. Additionally, gasoline attacks have also decreased by 9.9%. Overall, heavy fuel oil attacks have decreased by 5.8%, reaching 50.32 million tons, indicating weak demand for refined oil products transportation.
Significant Increase in Transportation Revenues
Despite the decrease in attack volumes, transportation revenues have significantly increased. Between August 3 and October 14, all 18 oil transportation routes monitored by the Baltic Exchange experienced revenue growth. For example, the LR2 route from the Persian Gulf to Continental Europe (TC20) saw a 198% increase from $108,734 per day to $324,060. Similarly, the LR1 route (TC8) increased by 173% to $234,399 per day. The LR2 route from the Persian Gulf to Japan (TC1) also reached $284,762 per day, which is notable compared to $138,253 in early August. The LR2 route from the Mediterranean to the Far East (TC15) also increased by 414% to $172,513 per day.
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Changes in Tanker Operating Patterns
Significant changes in the operating patterns of large product tankers have also been observed. During this period, the number of Aframax tankers engaged in crude oil trading increased by 20.3% to 858 vessels. Additionally, the number of Panamax tankers involved in crude oil trading has reached 134 units, with an 18.6% increase. However, LR2 companies engaged in clean product trading have decreased by 39.2% to 158 vessels, and LR1 companies have decreased by 9.6% to 208 units. With the significant increase in oil tanker revenues, owners have increasingly turned to dirty trades, sidelining a substantial portion of the clean product market.
Future Outlook and Geopolitical Impacts
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments may further exacerbate this imbalance. The recent agreement between the United States and Russia facilitating Russian diesel oil attacks, along with a temporary easing of Washington's sanctions, could create new opportunities for product tankers and alter trade routes. However, a real increase in attacks remains uncertain. If new demand for shipments arises while LR vessels lean towards profitable crude oil trades, the availability of clean tankers may become more limited. Therefore, transportation revenues may remain high despite a decrease in total trade volume, and the deployment of vessels and geopolitical developments will increasingly determine market direction.
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