Analysts and economists have raised the price of Brent crude oil for 2026 above $90 per barrel for the first time since May. Ongoing disruptions in Middle Eastern energy flows have diminished hopes for stability in the region and led to rising prices.
Price and Demand Forecast
According to a survey of 32 economists and analysts in October, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 is forecasted to be $92.88, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil is expected to be $86.60 per barrel. These figures represent an increase from last month's forecasts, when Brent crude was estimated at $89.05 and U.S. crude at $83.90 per barrel.
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Tobias Kler, an analyst at UniCredit Bank, stated that disruptions in Middle Eastern energy flows, a shortage of supply in the petroleum products market, and a significant reduction in reserves indicate that a return to pre-war production levels by the U.S. and Israel against Iran will take time, increasing the risk of price hikes.
Impact of Unrest on the Market
The U.S. and Israel's war against Iran in late February pushed the price of Brent crude oil to $126.41 per barrel in April. This war has affected the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies about one-fifth of the world's energy resources, becoming a hotspot of unrest.
The price differential for certain types of oil, such as Forties crude from the North Sea compared to dated Brent, has increased unprecedentedly in the physical market. Additionally, the spot price for Brent and WTI crude is higher than the future delivery price, known as a "backwardation structure," indicating a short-term supply shortage in the market.
HSBC has estimated that the current supply disruption will lead to a reduction of about 5 million barrels in daily oil demand in the second quarter of 2026. Analysts predict that demand will decrease in 2026 but will trend upward again in 2027.
It is expected that the supply shortage in the market will reach about 2.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. Furthermore, OPEC and OPEC+ members will refrain from making fundamental changes to their policies in the short term.
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