The Iranian capital market has faced selling pressure and increasing concerns among traders in the early days of the second week of Aban 1405. The downward trend of the overall index, the outflow of real liquidity, and the decreasing willingness of investors to accept risk have created a situation where even the publication of some favorable financial reports has not led to a sustainable return of demand.
According to the trading data from Sunday, Aban 10, the overall index of the Tehran Stock Exchange fell by about 184,771 units, equivalent to 2.36%, reaching the range of 7,654,000 units. The equal-weighted index also decreased, and the heavy outflow of real money from the stock market continued. Estimates indicate that the outflow of real capital from stocks and equity funds on this day was about 7 to 8 trillion tomans, depending on the calculation range.
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Analysis of the Current Stock Market Situation
Arad Pourkar, a market analyst, believes that the current situation cannot be analyzed solely based on the decline of the index or the outflow of money. He points out that a significant portion of shareholder behavior is influenced by systematic risks and ambiguity in regional developments. According to Pourkar, the stock market is taking the potential escalation of conflict between Iran and the United States seriously, and as long as the outcome of negotiations and the security situation in the region remain unclear, traders' conservative behavior will continue.
The market analyst also emphasizes that although there have been reports about Qatar's efforts to continue negotiations, the market has not yet shown a positive and sustainable reaction to this news. Therefore, investors find themselves between two different scenarios: achieving an agreement and reducing tensions or continuing the diplomatic deadlock and increasing the risk of conflict.
New Support Range for the Stock Market
Arad Pourkar has also analyzed the support range of the overall stock index. He believes that if systematic risks continue, the 7 million unit range could be an important fundamental support for the stock market. However, this analysis does not mean predicting a definite fall of the index to the 7 million unit level. According to the latest statistics, the overall index is at the level of 7,654,000 units, and the distance to the 7 million unit level is about 654,000 units, equivalent to 8.5%.
Pourkar also notes that a decline in prices could make the valuation ratios of some companies more attractive, but fundamental support differs from guaranteed support. If the intensity of political risks increases, corporate profitability is harmed, or the outflow of money continues, no level can be considered a guaranteed floor for the stock market.
Finally, Arad Pourkar mentions the outflow of about 30 trillion tomans from the stock market in the past week and emphasizes that some investors are withdrawing their liquidity from stocks and transferring it to fixed-income funds. These changes in the market require careful examination and further analysis.
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