Andrea Monti, CEO and Chief Executive of Sogese, in his new analysis examines the current state of maritime transport and emphasizes that the decline in rates does not mean a return to predictable services. He states that Europe is entering the last quarter of the year with two opposing forces: while more capacity is available due to the return of Suez routes, shipping lines are simultaneously trying to maintain their productivity by holding empty voyages.
Impact of Delays on Carriers
Monti says that for carriers, the key figure is delays. In Sogese's report, carriers are advised to add at least eight days to the arrival times of goods from the Far East to Italy until a report from Xeneta in September, which is set to be published this month, shows that the arrival of goods from the Far East to Europe is more than 20 percent on time. In August, this figure was only 6 percent, the lowest level since late 2021.
Actual Decline in Rates
The decline in rates in the maritime transport market is real. According to the global container index from Drewry, the rate for container shipping from Shanghai to Genoa has decreased by 43 percent since July 9 (from $6463 to $3696 for a 40-foot container as of October 8), and the rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam has also decreased by 32 percent (from $4933 to $3337). Sogese estimates that a carrier transporting 100 FEU containers per month from Shanghai to Genoa pays about $277,000 less per month compared to the rate on July 9.
This is while the WCI index does not include shipping costs, so additional costs such as delays, port fees, and inland transport can prevent a reduction in total costs.
Impact of Changes in the Suez Network
Sogese views changes in the Suez network as a major transformation on a network scale, the speed of which depends on security conditions. On September 14, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd resumed services Gemini AE5, AE11, AE12, and ME2 to Suez and announced that further changes depend on stability in the Red Sea region. According to Drewry's report, the number of container transits increased from 38 to 48 in week 38, compared to 41 last year and 68 percent more than the same week in 2025.
Forecast for Rate Declines in the Fourth Quarter
Sogese predicts that rates will face further declines in the fourth quarter of the year, as Suez capacity becomes available faster than the rate of removing empty voyages. Based on its analyses, the organization considers the number of empty voyages remaining at seven or fewer in weeks 43 and 44 as a sign of further decline.
Monti advises carriers not to set Mediterranean rates for more than three months until the number of Suez transits increases. Given that rates may reach January levels, carriers should closely monitor the market.
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