Saudi Arabia's oil loading at the Yanbu field located in the Red Sea increased to 5 million barrels per day in March 2026. This increase, which is more than six times the previous loading of about 0.8 million barrels per day, occurred under conditions where the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.
Threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The Saudi government has reported that about 80 percent of this loading volume was initially transported through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, this route has been threatened due to Houthi attacks that began in July. This situation creates a different vulnerability known as "asymmetric escalation," where a limited action by a player with average resources can provoke disproportionate reactions from more powerful players.
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Changes in Transportation Patterns
Houthi missile attacks towards Israel in March turned into a broader campaign that broke the four-year ceasefire of this group with Saudi Arabia. On July 20, the Houthis announced that they had imposed sanctions on Saudi ships while stating that other ships could pass. Reports indicate that weekly traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait decreased from 354 to 269 in the first week of sanctions.
Given the strategic importance of the coastline, Perim Island has a key position that can divide the strait into two routes. This position allows the Houthis to access cheap and renewable weapons and may enable them to impose crossing fees, similar to what Iran has attempted in the Strait of Hormuz.
These developments represent not only a maritime issue but also a national security matter for Saudi Arabia. While pressures have been selective, any cheap provocation could lead to costly reactions. Saudi Arabia is reluctant to engage in another prolonged conflict with the Houthis, and Turkey and Pakistan are also seeking to avoid direct involvement in the war.
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