The number of container ship transits in the Suez Canal from March to September 2026 has increased by 59% from 139 to 221. This growth is primarily due to the entry of large ships into this route, with capacities ranging from 24,000 to 25,000 TEU. These ships, known as ultra-large vessels, operate on the main Asia-Europe services, and their monthly transits have increased from 22 to 127.
Changes in Shipping Routes
Since the onset of the war in March, most of these ships have only been visiting Red Sea ports, and by August, most returned to Asian markets. The transit of ships from Europe to Asia has increased at a faster rate than from Asia to Europe. This trend indicates the willingness of shipping companies to reposition ships and transfer cargo to Asia before moving full loads from Asia to Europe via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This route change reduces travel time by one to two weeks.
Expectations of Lower Rates and Empty Ships
Container trade between Asia and Europe is expected to shift towards overcapacity in the fourth quarter of 2026. Currently, about 100 large container ships are transiting the Suez Canal, opting for this route instead of going around Africa. According to Sea-Intelligence, this trend is gradually approaching pre-crisis levels. Additionally, shipping companies have increased their capacity by about 41% between May 2023 and May 2025 to transport more cargo via the longer route to Europe.
With demand in Europe decreasing after summer and the approach of China's Golden Week holidays (October 1-7), shipping companies are competing to fill empty space on their ships. According to the global container index in Drewry, shipping rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped by about 15% between September 3 and 24, falling from $4,092 to $3,485 for a 40-foot container (FEU).
Risks in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
This overcapacity is heavily dependent on the situation in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, where every ship must pass unless it is only transferring cargo to Red Sea ports. Most of the returning ships from this strait belong to Western shipping companies that were previously exposed to threats from identity groups. These ships are passing through the strait with their AIS system turned off, which accounts for nearly 75% of the transit capacity through the strait in August and September. In contrast, ships belonging to Iran and Russia pass with their AIS system on.
It is noteworthy that if attacks by identity groups harm the transit of Western ships, traffic may revert to going around Africa, ultimately leading to reduced capacity and increased prices. Container ships associated with China, Russia, and Iran that are still in transit are mostly of a smaller type and operate with direct services from China and India to Turkey, Egypt, and Russia.
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