Major oil companies including Shell, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil are preparing reports indicating one of their most profitable periods. While households face rising fuel and essential goods costs, these companies are experiencing unprecedented profit margins in the refining sector.
War and Oil Market Volatility
According to reports, wars and disruptions in energy traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have caused severe fluctuations in the oil and petroleum products market. This situation has led oil companies to collectively record over $75 billion in adjusted profits in the first half of 2026. This figure is about 75% higher than the same period last year.
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Increase in Refining Profit Margins
Analyses show that Shell is forecasting a refining profit margin of about $42 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026. This figure is higher than the $24 profit margin in the second quarter and represents a new record in the oil industry. Similarly, TotalEnergies expects its refining and chemicals segment cash flow to reach about $4 billion, nearly double that of the previous quarter.
ExxonMobil has also reported a potential increase of $4.5 billion in profits from its downstream segment. These figures indicate that the profitability of energy companies is not solely dependent on rising crude oil prices. In fact, sometimes refining and trading products, especially diesel and jet fuel, generate more profit during supply shortages than oil extraction.
Fuel Shortages and Economic Pressure
The global market is facing a contradiction. Crude oil may be available, but refining capacity or product exports may not be sufficient to meet demand. The International Energy Agency has recently reported that global diesel exports have decreased by about 700,000 barrels per day compared to last year. The agency has also predicted that global diesel and similar fuel supply in the third quarter will be about 1.7 million barrels per day less than the same period last year.
Managing Windfall Revenues
The Financial Times, in an analysis, pointed to the dilemma faced by major oil companies in managing about $32 billion in windfall revenues. These companies must decide whether to allocate new resources to develop oil fields, increase refining capacity, and invest in low-carbon energy, or prioritize debt repayment, dividends, and stock buybacks.
Ultimately, higher profits for oil companies do not necessarily mean an improvement in the global economy. In fact, if the increase in refining profit margins is due to a shortage of diesel and jet fuel, transportation companies, airlines, and fuel-consuming industries will face higher costs. These costs will gradually be passed on to the prices of goods and services, putting more pressure on the global economy.
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