Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have significantly disrupted the country's oil refining capacity since late October 2023. According to reports, these strikes have had a notable impact on 30% of Russia's total oil refining capacity, thereby putting pressure on Moscow's fuel supply situation.
Details of the Disruptions at Refineries
In the past week, nine out of a total of 35 major Russian refineries faced disruptions, with these facilities having a combined nominal capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day. While the total primary oil refining capacity of Russia is estimated to be around 6.8 million barrels per day, these disruptions could lead to a real reduction in crude oil processing by 200,000 tons per day, equivalent to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day.
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By the end of October, Russian refineries were processing an average of 5 million barrels of oil per day, a situation that followed a slight recovery from previous Ukrainian attacks. The latest strikes have affected refineries located in the Ryazan, Yaroslavl, and Volga regions.
Economic Consequences and the Global Diesel Market
One of the most significant of these attacks was a fire at the Kirishi refinery, the second largest in Russia, which occurred according to statements from the regional governor. Russia recently signed an agreement to supply diesel to the United States and international markets, under which 300,000 tons of diesel are planned, with additional shipments also scheduled.
Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, announced on Tuesday that this agreement is currently helping to reduce fuel prices, but reports indicate a return of fuel shortages to several regions of Russia. Recent disruptions at refineries have complicated the global diesel market, which has already been severely restricted due to refinery issues in the Middle East stemming from the Iran war.
Moreover, disruptions in Russian oil exports have added further tensions to the global market, keeping diesel prices at an unacceptably high level. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States, are scheduled for November 10 and 11 in Abu Dhabi, although the two countries remain at odds over key territorial demands.
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