The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, hosted by the United States in Abu Dhabi, will take place on November 10 and 11, 2023, and face serious challenges. This is the first round of negotiations between these three countries since February 2022, when the war in Ukraine escalated significantly. The U.S. President, Donald Trump, stated on 60 Minutes that "we are close to an agreement" and expressed hope for an end to the war.
Challenges of the Negotiations and Russia's Position
One of the main obstacles to progress in the negotiations is Russia's position. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has shown no interest in an immediate cessation of hostilities since the war began in February 2022. Analysts believe that Moscow is using the negotiations as a tool to buy time and maintain hope for peace while being unwilling to make any concessions.
Meanwhile, control over the Donbas region is one of the key issues. Russia has emphasized that complete control over this area is a prerequisite for any peace agreement. Currently, about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory is under Russian control, including the Crimean Peninsula, which was occupied in 2014. Trump's recent statements that the war will end "with a different version of Ukraine" have raised concerns in Kyiv.
Security Agreements in Europe
Trump is also seeking to establish a "big and beautiful agreement" that, according to him, "will include more than just Ukraine." Jared Kushner, Trump's special advisor, mentioned on Twitter the need for a broader security architecture in Europe that would provide the necessary conditions for sustainable peace. These statements have been perceived as alarming in Kyiv and other countries, as some seem to threaten Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Kaja Kallas, the President of the European Union's foreign policy, emphasized the necessity of the EU's involvement in any agreement, stating, "Any agreement will require the participation of the European Union to be implemented." She also noted that Russia "bombards civilians" and "pretends to negotiate."
Ultimately, the negotiations are taking place under circumstances where Ukraine and the European Union are highly cautious about any discussions that would exclude European countries from the peace process. Efforts to create a comprehensive agreement may make achieving initial steps toward peace more difficult.
