The global wheat market is experiencing major changes due to reduced supply from Russia and Ukraine and shifts in import patterns. Wheat exports from Russia, particularly from Baltic ports such as Vysotsk, Ust-Luga, and St. Petersburg, have increased and this trend is expected to continue.
Status of Wheat Exports from the Black Sea and Baltic
The status of wheat exports from the Black Sea has been significantly affected by recent attacks on ships. While Ukrainian exports from the ports of Izmail and Reni are vital for export campaigns, their volumes are low due to structural limitations. Specifically, the Danube River ports cannot achieve volumes similar to the three main Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports to Baltic ports have increased, with export volumes from these ports reaching a record close to 1 million tons in September. It is expected that Russian exports in October will reach about 2.8 million tons, a significant increase from 2.4 million tons in September.
Impacts on Global Imports and Demand
Changes in wheat supply have significantly impacted import patterns. Middle Eastern and North African countries, which typically attract the most Russian and Ukrainian wheat, are currently facing a significant reduction in imports. For example, Turkey has reduced its imports of Russian wheat, and Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, is waiting for lower prices. On the other hand, Indonesia has been purchasing Argentine wheat in larger-than-usual volumes.
At the same time, climatic impacts have also affected wheat supply. In Australia, despite El Niño conditions, wheat production has reached about 30 million tons, and Argentina is also in a good position with production of 21 to 22 million tons. These factors have led to increased competition in the global wheat market.
Alongside these factors, transportation and fuel costs have also impacted the revenues of the shipping fleet. Fuel costs have risen sharply, affecting freight rates. By 2026, dry fleet revenues are expected to average $18,500 per day for the Panamax fleet.
