Titan, part of Molgas, has examined the role of LNG, liquid biomethane (LBM/bio-LNG), and electronic methane (the decarbonization pathway for methane) in compliance with FuelEU Maritime regulations and the performance of these regulations, particularly its cumulative mechanism.
Modeling Compliance with FuelEU Maritime
This article models compliance for an 8000 TEU container ship operating on a route between Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Algeciras. This ship consumes approximately 18,000 tons of fuel equivalent LNG annually. Three scenarios have been examined in this analysis: the baseline of fuel oil, gray LNG, and a 30% LBM blend.
Read more: Decrease in Natural Gas Prices in Eastern U.S. Markets
The fuel oil ship faces shortages, and penalty costs are projected to increase from about €2.2 million in 2025 to around €17 million by 2040. By using LNG, the container ship is expected to produce over 11,700 tons of CO₂ equivalent annually in 2025 and remain compliant with regulations until 2035. From 2040, using a 15% LBM blend restores compliance, and each additional LBM creates cumulative surplus value. Introducing a 30% LBM blend could increase this surplus to over 34,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent per year, translating to a commercial value of €3.4 million to €5.1 million annually.
Challenges and Opportunities in the LNG Industry
These figures are based on the default emission factor of FuelEU Maritime, which covers the entire lifecycle of the fuel, along with a published penalty rate of €2,400 per ton of energy equivalent VLSFO. Gross cumulative values are estimated based on a market range of €100 to €150 per ton of CO₂ equivalent. The net commercial advantage depends on market compliance values and the additional cost of LBM compared to fossil LNG. Titan can accurately model this for any ship and supply scenario.
Gregor Hartig, Commercial Director of Titan, stated: "Cumulative effectively turns performance emission targets into a tradable or allocatable asset. This establishes a connection between the market and competition in maritime transport with the implementation of stringent greenhouse gas regulations."
Marou Varwat, Commercial Manager of Titan, also added: "FuelEU provides a strategic, practical, and cost-effective approach to decarbonization and fleet renewal, considering the lifecycle of investments in maritime assets."
In addition to the cumulative aspect, this article notes that the EU's default emission factor for LNG is very high and references a report from Rystad Energy, which states that the global emission intensity of LNG as a bunker fuel in 2024 is reported to be 13.9 grams CO₂e/MJ, which is lower than the EU's default value of 18.5 grams CO₂e/MJ.
Titan also highlights the LNG industry's journey in reducing methane leakage and upstream supply chain leaks, urging authorities to reward good performance and penalize poor performance. This FuelEU Maritime analysis has been presented after the first year of its management by Titan, which has been verified by DNV and includes several hundred ships.
Read more: Reduction of 500 Jobs in Texas Oil and Gas Industry in September · Japan's Trade Deficit Reached $17.8 Billion in the First Half of 2026
