The withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, ordered by Joe Biden in 2024, aimed to transfer the responsibility of countering the ISIS threat to Iraqi forces. This decision was made with the goal of replacing the coalition mission with bilateral training, intelligence cooperation, and military assistance. Although this agreement has also continued under Donald Trump, the security conditions have changed significantly.
New Security Challenges
Currently, American forces are losing some of their key capabilities on the ground. Intelligence regarding militant movements and aerial surveillance that was previously provided by American forces is at risk. Additionally, Kurdish commanders have stated that logistical support and American drones are also decreasing. Furthermore, the air defense systems that protected Erbil are withdrawing, putting the Kurdistan region at greater risk.
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Delay in Controlling Militant Weapons
The initial agreement between Baghdad and Washington for the withdrawal of American forces was related to controlling the weapons of Iran-affiliated armed groups. However, Baghdad has extended the deadline for the delivery of weapons from September 30 to June 30, 2027. Some groups are calling for further delays, and negotiations are underway to integrate members of these militants into state security institutions. This likely means the entry of fighters into official state structures without the dissolution of the armed networks behind them.
Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have attacked Medina, occurring two weeks after Riyadh claimed this group attempted to attack Mecca. The Saudi coalition has announced that a drone attacked the Taybah power distribution station on September 29. This station supplies electricity to the Prophet's Mosque, the second holiest site in Islam.
Finally, given the reduction of gas production in Syria to 8.5 million cubic meters per day from 30 million cubic meters before the war, any attack on the energy infrastructure of this country would have dire consequences. Syria's Minister of Energy, Mohammad al-Bashir, has emphasized that the country is facing a significant shortage to meet its domestic needs.
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