The Strait of Hormuz, recognized as one of the most important global shipping routes, has come under the spotlight due to recent confrontations between the United States and Iran. This strait, with an approximate width of 39 kilometers at its narrowest point, carries an average of 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, which is equivalent to one-quarter of global maritime oil trade.
Current Status of the Strait of Hormuz
With the onset of the crisis, the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most sensitive links in the global economy. According to estimates, by 2026, conflicts in the Middle East will lead to the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market. Predictions indicate that the volume of 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined products that typically pass through this strait has significantly decreased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that restoring normal traffic to this strait is the most important action for stabilizing the global oil and gas market.
Read more: Marco Rubio prioritizes security in the Arctic
Diplomatic and Military Tactics of Both Sides
The United States has exerted pressure on Iran by leveraging its maritime superiority and imposing sanctions. In response, Iran has attempted to maintain its influence in this strait through maritime traffic restrictions and threats to prevent certain ships from passing. Recently, Iran has increased its list of prohibited vessels to at least 56, including oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers.
Modern maritime diplomacy between the two countries has somewhat transformed into a "gunboat diplomacy," where militarization, blockades, economic sanctions, and access to shipping routes are employed as tools in negotiations.
Conflicting pressures are bringing both countries back to the negotiating table. While coercive actions that prolong war also create an incentive for diplomacy, Iran faces economic weaknesses due to sanctions. According to Bloomberg, pressure on currency, imports, and domestic prices in Iran is increasing, with the exchange rate of the rial to the dollar reaching a record 2.5 million rials in September.
On the other hand, the United States is also facing its own challenges. Traffic restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz have led to rising oil prices, particularly diesel. On September 28, the price of Brent oil reached $105.28 per barrel, but after receiving signals from the market indicating improved Middle Eastern exports, it decreased to $102.59.
This situation reflects the severe dependence of energy prices on any diplomatic signal between the two countries. Similarly, the oil crisis has impacted the bond market, raising concerns about inflation and borrowing costs in the United States.
Since mid-September, signs of a compromise formula in negotiations between the United States and Iran have emerged. Reports indicate that negotiators from both sides in New York have adopted a phased approach, where Iran may allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic and maritime sanctions.
Read more: Strengthening maritime search and rescue cooperation in Madagascar with the MSARC training program · Kazem Jalali and Mehrdad Rahimi examined the cooperation potentials of Iran and Russia in the petrochemical industry
