The seven-month war in the Middle East has had profound effects on the production capacity of OPEC+ member countries. While the American consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is responsible for estimating the production capacity of these countries, excluding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, it will not publish its final report until mid-November. This delay not only affects the scheduling of the OPEC+ summit at the end of November but has also turned the unequal cooperation of member countries in providing the necessary data for this review into a political issue.
Challenges of Cooperation in OPEC+
Among OPEC+ members, the lack of cooperation in providing data will significantly impact the fate of quotas. Countries with lower production capacity may come under pressure to reduce their quotas, while producers who have successfully expanded their capacity will demand a larger share. The United Arab Emirates, as a prominent example, has exerted pressure to increase its quota in light of its growing capacity. Before completing this review, this country exited the union in May, indicating the end of patience among some members regarding the lengthy process.
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Consequences of Delay in Capacity Assessment
The delay in providing the production capacity report will have widespread implications for OPEC+. If DeGolyer and MacNaughton can deliver its report according to the announced schedule, OPEC+ can begin discussions on the 2027 quota. However, if some countries continue to withhold their data or if issues arising from the war persist in capacity development projects, this deadline may be postponed again. In this case, market analysts expect increased political pressure from producing countries to maintain or even increase the current quota.
Currently, this delay is viewed not only as a statistical exercise but also as an official reference for future quota negotiations. Any delay in completing this review puts the financial and investment planning of member countries for 2027 in uncertainty. Additionally, the risk of a domino effect of exiting the union is also a serious concern. If a large member like the UAE chooses to exit instead of waiting for a collective agreement, it could set a precedent for other dissatisfied members and weaken OPEC+'s collective bargaining power in the global oil market in the long run.
Read more: Masoud Pezeshkian at the Summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Turkmenistan · Postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to determine oil production quotas for 2027
