The Strait of Hormuz, as a strategic passage for crude oil exports, has recently received special attention. The Middle East war and related crises have affected the equations of the global energy market, and various countries are seeking alternative resources and routes.
Challenges of the Strait of Hormuz and the Global Oil Market
Ahmad Alavi, an economist and economic researcher, points out past crises in the oil market such as the ١٩٧٣ crisis and the tanker war in the ١٩٨٠s, emphasizing that the notion of a normal and risk-free market is a myth. He believes that other countries have managed some of the problems arising from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This includes transferring oil from one tanker to another, relocating shipments to the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea, and using alternative pipelines.
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According to Alavi, Saudi Arabia is increasing its oil export capacity via the Red Sea route, and countries like Iraq are negotiating with neighbors to find new routes. This trend could reduce the importance of the Strait of Hormuz in the long term and put more economic pressure on Iran.
The Role of Investment and the Future of the Strait of Hormuz
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil data analysis at Kepler, also believes that the Strait of Hormuz can only be used as a pressure lever once. He points out that the United Arab Emirates has started new pipeline projects for several years, and other countries are also investing in alternative routes.
Falakshahi predicts that these projects will be operational in the next three to four years, which will lead to a decrease in the current importance of the Strait of Hormuz. He also mentions the diesel crisis and its impacts on the market, stating that drone attacks on Russian refineries have affected the country's diesel exports.
Given these conditions, both Alavi and Falakshahi believe that the pressures on Iran's economy due to sanctions and dependence on crude oil could have broader consequences.
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