China's crude oil imports reached about 7 million barrels per day in the first 20 days of September 2023, which represents a decline of 4 million barrels per day or nearly 35% compared to 11 million barrels per day before the war began on February 28. This reduction in imports raises serious questions about the share of reduced Iranian oil exports to China.
Challenges in Middle Eastern Oil Supply
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have posed serious challenges to China's access to Middle Eastern oil. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2026, China's crude oil imports reached about 8 million barrels per day, which is 32% less than in the first quarter of the same year. Additionally, a significant reduction in seaborne shipments, especially from Iraq (910,000 barrels per day), Russia (640,000 barrels per day), and the UAE (600,000 barrels per day) has been reported.
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Changes in China's Purchasing Patterns
To manage the risks arising from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, China is seeking new options. Some state-owned shipping companies in China have shifted part of their operations to ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf. In September 2023, oil shipments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia continue to be sent to China, but these routes have become more complex and costly due to increased risks.
Before the war, Iranian oil was one of the main sources of supply for China and was particularly attractive to independent (teapot) refineries. However, the war and its resulting restrictions have severely reduced Iranian oil exports. According to Kpler, Vortexa, and TankerTrackers.com, Iranian crude oil loadings have decreased from about 2 million barrels per day in March to less than 500,000 barrels per day in August.
This situation indicates a severe blow to Iranian oil exports, but the direct correlation of the 4 million barrel reduction in China's imports with the reduction in Iranian oil exports cannot be established. The figures published in some sources regarding Iranian oil exports to China, including 80,000 barrels per day, require closer examination and may lack sufficient credibility.
Currently, China, due to its significant strategic reserves, has the necessary tools to manage supply shocks in the short term. The EIA estimates China's strategic oil reserves at about 1.5 billion barrels in the second quarter of 2026, allowing China to meet part of its needs from these reserves.
However, the reduction in China's oil imports is particularly significant for Iran, as China is recognized as the most important remaining market for Iranian oil. If the war continues, Iran's main challenge will not only be the price of oil but also the critical issue of converting underground oil into sold oil. While global oil prices may be high, if Iranian oil cannot be loaded, transported, and delivered to customers in a timely manner, this price increase will not lead to an increase in export revenues.
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