Recent surveys indicate a significant decrease in revenues related to Atlantic ocean tankers compared to revenues from Persian Gulf tankers. As of November 6, revenues for the TD22 route (Gulf of America to China) have decreased by 34.9% from their peak in October. In contrast, the revenue decline for the TD3C route (Persian Gulf to China) has been only 9.0%. These results indicate greater pressure on Atlantic revenues and an increase in the TD3C/TD22 ratio to 3.10 at the end of the week, the highest level since September 18 and above the 12-month average of 2.77.
Trend of Declining Revenues on Atlantic Routes
Only Atlantic routes in the dirty cargo categories have shown the highest percentage decrease. For instance, the Suezmax route from West Africa to the UK (TD20) has faced a 46.6% decrease, and the route from Guyana to ARA (TD27) has seen a 52.6% decline. Additionally, the Black Sea to Mediterranean route (TD6) has decreased by 37.2%. Among Aframax routes, the Cross-Mediterranean route (TD19) has a 69.8% decrease and the Gulf of America to ARA route (TD25) has a 60.8% decline, indicating a more critical situation compared to the highest recorded decreases on other routes.
Increase in Western Ballast Fleet
Despite these revenue declines, the number of VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) ballasts in western routes has increased. On November 8, 49 VLCC tankers were active in the west, up from 45 tankers the previous week. Among these tankers, 43 originated from the Far East. Brazil is the main destination, leading with 18 tankers. South Africa follows with 10, and the Atlantic coasts of Africa have 8 tankers.
However, this number is still below the peak of 52 tankers in late October. The trend of ballast movements from east to west has also decreased, from 73 in September to 50 in October. This increase in ballasts is notable compared to the continued concentration of the VLCC fleet in the East of Suez, where the east-to-west fleet ratio reached 5.11 on November 7.
Geographical Impacts and Transportation Costs
Analysis of oil flows shows that the total oil flow from all origins in October averaged 45.7 million barrels per day, a 6.6% decrease compared to last year. Additionally, flows from Saudi Arabia averaged 2.32 million barrels per day, reflecting a 66.3% decrease compared to last year. These statistics emphasize the need for a closer examination of the economic and geographical impacts on the oil and gas market.
