The decline in biofuel aggregation values in the European market, particularly concerning liquid biological fuels (LBM) and B100, has raised serious concerns in the energy industry. Last week, the aggregation values for EU-EU fuels dropped sharply to €86.90/mtCO2e (equivalent to $97/mtCO2e). This decline represents a decrease of €21.70 ($25) per ton equivalent of CO2.
Factors Influencing the Decline in Values
The sharp decline in biofuel aggregation values in the market has occurred due to increasing competition among suppliers and a rise in supply against demand. Currently, some suppliers are offering EU-EU fuel aggregation values in the range of €100-130/mtCO2e (equivalent to $112-146/mtCO2e), which is significantly higher than the values assessed by ENGINE.
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Specifically, LBM aggregation values for EU-EU trips have decreased to $74-87/mt depending on the type of engine. Meanwhile, the price of LBM increased last week to $205-214/mt. Additionally, potential aggregation values for B100 for EU-EU trips have also faced a decrease of $72/mt.
Fuel Market Status in Different Regions
In non-EU-EU trips, a smaller decrease of $36/mt in potential aggregation values for B100 has been observed. This decline has led to an increase in B100 prices in Singapore by $30/mt. Overall, the fuel market in these regions is facing a supply shortage, with delivery times for VLSFO and HSFO fuels reported to be around 10-15 days.
In the city of Rotterdam, there are interesting facts regarding fuel rates. The facts indicate that LBM values have increased by $167-176/mt compared to VLSFO, reaching $400-516/mt. Meanwhile, LBM values compared to B100 have also increased by $250-259/mt, reaching $484-600/mt. However, the price of B100 in Rotterdam has turned into a $24/mt discount compared to HSFO, being $90/mt higher.
In Singapore, LNG prices have also increased by $25-30/mt depending on the type of engine. Additionally, LNG values at this port have risen by $7-12/mt compared to VLSFO, reaching $308-364/mt. This upward trend in the fuel market indicates significant fluctuations in prices and market demand.
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