On September 10, 2026, the Houthis captured the city of Mocha and the Hanish Islands off the southern coast of Yemen in a large-scale military operation. The group then proceeded to capture Perim Island, located in the center of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the strait reaches about 20 kilometers. These developments lead to an increase in the military power of the Houthis and challenge commercial and military flows in the region.
Risks Arising from Houthi Capture
The capture of Perim Island allows the Houthis to enhance their ability to control maritime trade and smuggling routes. This group can easily launch cheaper attacks against Saudi ships and stockpile more advanced equipment for fighting the Yemeni government or threatening the interests of Israel and the United States. The capture of Mocha and the adjacent coasts is also connected to arms and drug smuggling networks, thereby reducing the inspection and control capacity of the Yemeni Navy.
Political and Military Consequences
The Houthis have stated that their goal is to pressure Saudi Arabia over the blockade of Yemen and that they do not intend to take control of Bab al-Mandab. However, the capture of Perim Island indicates that they have effectively taken control of the strait. The Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center under Houthi control announced on September 10 that these developments will limit resource supplies to the anti-Houthi coalition.
According to Windward MIOC's assessment, the Houthis are likely to strengthen their dominance over Mocha and use its coasts to increase their influence over the strait and limit the supply lines of the anti-Houthi coalition. In this situation, the risks associated with the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab have significantly increased, and the operational situation in these areas has become extremely critical.
