Russia's oil and gas revenue in October 2023 will reach one trillion rubles (equivalent to 11 billion and 970 thousand dollars), indicating a 10 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This significant increase is noteworthy due to Russia's reliance on oil and gas sales, which account for about one-fifth of the country's total government revenue.
Tax Revenue Forecast
Forecasts indicate that tax revenue from oil and gas sales in October will more than double compared to September. This increase is primarily due to payments related to taxes on excess profits from oil production. Excluding this tax, Russia's revenue from oil and gas sales in October will be about 164 billion rubles or 36 percent higher than in September.
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Analysis of the Oil Market Situation
Analyses based on data related to oil and gas production, refinery output, and supply levels in domestic and global markets indicate the impact of supply disruptions due to Middle Eastern conflicts on global oil prices. However, oil production is expected to decrease by 5 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, which could somewhat offset the positive impact of rising oil prices.
In Russia's 2026 budget, oil and gas revenue is projected to be 8 trillion and 918 billion rubles out of a total of 40 trillion and 283 billion rubles in total revenue for the country. Additionally, estimates suggest that total oil and gas revenue in Russia from January to October 2026 will reach 6 trillion and 450 billion rubles, representing a 14 percent decrease compared to the same period last year.
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