Natural gas prices in the European market reached €96.85 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Wednesday due to concerns about the Iran war and its impacts on the energy market. This price reflects a 2.7% increase compared to the previous day, occurring after a significant drop in prices in recent days.
Price Fluctuations and War Impacts
The gas price at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, which is recognized as the main gas trading index in Europe, has increased from a one-month low of €91.30 per megawatt-hour earlier this week to this level. This price drop was linked to signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding no plans for a new attack on Iran. However, Trump indicated that the United States remains "ready and equipped" should the need for a new military operation arise.
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Gas Supply Situation in Europe
On Wednesday, oil prices also rose, consequently pushing up European natural gas prices. Traders are not optimistic about a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, while ongoing attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue. Current natural gas prices are still lower than the four-year high of €101.82 per megawatt-hour at the end of October, but significantly higher than last year's levels.
As winter approaches, Europe is in a vulnerable position regarding gas supply, as LNG flows from the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below pre-war levels. QatarEnergy has also announced an extension of force majeure on deliveries until the end of December 2026. According to provided data, EU storage sites were 72% full as of November 10, which is significantly lower than the five-year average for this time of year.
With dropping temperatures and the onset of the heating season, storage levels in most EU countries have begun to decline. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global gas market may remain under pressure until next year, as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest gas storage levels in over a decade.
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