Mohammad Reza Aref, the First Vice President, announced on October 5 that due to the damage inflicted on energy infrastructure in the two recent wars, 250 million cubic meters of gas have been removed from the network. He hopes that by the onset of winter, 100 million cubic meters of this amount will return to the network. However, even if this promise is fulfilled, a significant portion of the lost capacity will still not return to the network.
History of the Gas Crisis in Iran
This reduction comes at a time when the Islamic Republic has not been able to create a sustainable balance between gas production and consumption even before the war. Last winter, gas consumption in the residential, commercial, and small industrial sectors reached a record 737 million cubic meters per day, accounting for about 85 percent of the network's gas. During this time, the gas shortage on some cold days reached about 300 million cubic meters per day.
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Over the past five years, gas shortages have become a recurring problem, and the government has shifted restrictions among industries, power plants, and in some cases households to maintain the network. Jawad Owji, the then Minister of Oil, announced that the gas shortage in winter 1400 was about 230 to 240 million cubic meters per day. In 1402, officials from the National Gas Company reported the possibility of the winter shortage reaching about 250 million cubic meters per day.
Challenges of the Winter Season and Its Impacts
The gas crisis in Iran not only means colder homes but also signifies the division of an insufficient resource among households, power plants, and various industries. The First Vice President, Masoud Pezeshkian, pointed out that the government does not want to cut off electricity and gas to industries, but some outages may be implemented. Experience from previous years has shown that prioritizing household gas does not eliminate the crisis but rather shifts it to other sectors.
In the steel industry, gas is essential as part of the production process, and the Iranian Steel Producers Association has attributed a 5.7 percent decrease in crude steel production in 1403 to energy restrictions. Additionally, in the petrochemical industry, the interruption of feedstock has led to the shutdown of production units.
Despite Iran having the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world, infrastructural problems and a lack of investment have increased pressure on the gas network. The reduction of gas supply to Iraq has also added to the country's economic problems. Estimates indicate that if pressure enhancement projects are not implemented on time, production reductions will intensify from 1406.
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