The 2026 Russian Duma elections, which involve the election of all 450 seats in the lower house of parliament, concluded on September 20. In this election, Vladimir Putin's United Russia party secured 57.83 percent of the votes, winning 355 out of 450 Duma seats. This result was achieved while the government used its tools to ensure positive outcomes for Putin.
Consequences of the Special Military Operation
The 2026 elections are largely viewed as a referendum on Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. This operation, which began on February 24, 2022, and was expected to conclude in 10 days, is now in its 1,675th day. Despite heavy casualties and severe economic damage, controlling Ukraine remains a central part of Putin's vision for restoring the great Russian empire.
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Challenges Facing Putin and New Strategies
Putin is facing serious challenges. The negative attrition rate of the Russian Armed Forces means that the number of casualties and injuries each month exceeds the number of individuals who can be replaced through recruitment. Currently, Russia has about 34,000 casualties per month, while voluntary recruitment programs attract only 27,000 individuals each month. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has increased to 8 to 1.
Putin is seeking new strategies to manage this crisis. He aims to expand military mobilization and increase the number of military personnel, with an estimated 300,000 to 600,000 individuals expected to be recruited in the first wave of mobilization. This expansion seems necessary given the current state of military forces and the need to secure manpower to continue the war in Ukraine.
Additionally, the Kremlin is simultaneously expanding gray operations and hybrid attacks that are deliberately kept below the threshold that could provoke a NATO military response. These actions include cyberattacks and espionage operations aimed at undermining infrastructure and military supply chains.
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