OPEC+ has delayed the oil production capacity review for its members for 2027. This delay is due to disruptions in capacity development projects in the Middle East and uncertainties in production estimates stemming from the U.S. and Israeli regime's war against Iran.
Delay in Production Capacity Assessment
OPEC+ had previously issued an order to review the production capacity of all members by the end of September 2026. However, sources indicate that the deadline for completing this assessment has changed and is expected to conclude by mid-November. This change in timing comes as OPEC emphasized the importance of completing the assessment of maximum sustainable production capacity for all member countries during its regular meeting in June.
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The Role of DeGolyer in the Assessment
The American oil consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is responsible for reviewing the production capacity of OPEC+ members. Sources have reported that DeGolyer will not submit its report to OPEC until mid-November. However, this timing allows for the review of findings at the next regular meeting of OPEC+ members, which will be held in late November.
Recent conflicts in the Middle East have negatively impacted the implementation of capacity expansion projects in some OPEC+ member countries and have posed challenges to estimating the production levels of these countries. Sources, without naming the countries, stated that not all countries have provided the necessary data for the production quota review.
Impact of Delays in Capacity Expansion Projects
The goal of the production capacity review is to provide an independent and updated assessment of the sustainable oil production levels of each member, which serves as an important benchmark in negotiations regarding production targets. Delays in capacity expansion projects could affect the baseline assumptions for these assessments and future member quotas. Countries with lower assessed capacities may receive lower quotas, while producers that have increased their capacity may seek higher quotas.
The United Arab Emirates, which has requested a higher quota from OPEC+ to reflect increased production capacity, exited the coalition in May. Additionally, Iraq is also seeking a higher quota.
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