OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) was established on September 14, 1960, with the participation of five founding countries, including Iran. The organization's existence is based on coordinating the oil policies of its members, helping to stabilize the market, ensuring a reliable and economical supply of oil for consumers, and creating a fair return on investment in the oil industry.
OPEC's Structural Weight in the Global Market
According to OPEC's 2026 statistical bulletin, member countries held approximately 1 billion and 243 million barrels of the total 1 billion and 572 million barrels of proven crude oil reserves in the world by the end of 2025, equivalent to 79.08%. OPEC members' share of global crude oil production was also 36.7%, and their crude oil exports reached about 19 million and 85 thousand barrels per day, with nearly 14 million and 79 thousand barrels per day going to Asian markets. Such concentration of reserves, production, and export capacity gives this organization a structural power that cannot be overlooked in the analysis of energy security and the long-term balance of global supply and demand.
Managing the Marginal Barrel of the Oil Market
Farhad Shahroki, Vice Chairman of the Energy Commission of the Parliament, identified OPEC's most important lever as managing the marginal barrel of the market, stating: Setting production targets, managing excess capacity, timing supply cuts or returns, and the credibility of the organization's policy messages can change market balance. Since oil demand, especially in the short term, is relatively inelastic, even a limited change in supply can have a significant impact on inventory levels, the time structure of prices, risk premiums, and traders' expectations. Therefore, OPEC's real power lies more in managing market balance and expectations regarding future supply than in setting prices.
Shahroki also noted the establishment of the cooperation declaration mechanism in 2016 and the development of cooperation between OPEC members and major non-OPEC producers within the OPEC+ framework as factors for expanding OPEC's influence on the oil market. He emphasized that OPEC's power is not unlimited, and the growth of supply from non-OPEC+ producers, differences in production capacity and financial conditions among members, and varying budgetary needs all affect the organization's maneuverability.
Ultimately, at 66 years old, OPEC remains one of the important pillars of global energy governance. Shahroki stated that for Iran, the issue is not merely maintaining its historical membership in OPEC, but it must play an active role in the decision-making architecture of OPEC in line with its geopolitical position and resource capacity. He emphasized that effective energy diplomacy must be accompanied by increased production capacity and the attraction of investment and technology.
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