Brent crude oil prices reached nearly $١١٠ on Friday night, a figure close to oil prices during the peak of the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran. This price increase has led to numerous speculations in the oil market. Brent crude oil prices have approached this level with a growth of over ٣.٣ percent, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also risen by more than two percent to nearly $٩٩ per barrel. This week, West Texas oil has grown by more than ٩ percent, and Brent oil prices have also increased by more than four percent.
Analysis of the Oil Market Situation
This surge in oil prices has occurred at a time when reports indicate a relative balance between oil supply and demand in the global market. According to a Kepler report, the average oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz in the seven days ending October ١٣ was ١١ million and ٦٢٠ thousand barrels per day. This figure is close to the oil transit numbers through the Strait of Hormuz before the Gulf War and constitutes about ٦٨ to ٧٠ percent of it. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency has reported that demand for oil is decreasing and it is predicted that in the fourth quarter of ٢٠٢٦, global oil demand will drop by about ٢.٥ million barrels per day compared to the previous year.
Read more: Tabriz Petrochemical Introduced as the Sample Unit of East Azerbaijan
Wars and Tensions Affecting the Oil Market
The global oil market is currently facing three main wars: the war in the Gulf, which has directly affected major oil producers, the Russia-Ukraine war, which has impacted energy infrastructure, and the Houthi war with Saudi Arabia, which has led to multiple attacks on Saudi oil and gas facilities. Oil prices were in the $٧٠ range before the U.S. and Israel's war and surged to $١١٠ with the onset of the war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. With the reduction of tensions, prices gradually returned to the $٨٠ range but have now reached high levels again.
Analysts believe that the increase in attacks on oil tankers and the lack of reduction in the risk of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create significant concerns for the market. Analysts at ING Bank have pointed out that uncertainties in the Middle East and concerns about the continuity of oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz have led the market to factor in significant risks in prices. Additionally, the increase in attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure has raised further concerns for oil market traders.
Read more: Equatorial Guinea Approves New Oil Law for Explorers · Rise in Crude Oil Prices Following Decrease in U.S. Stockpiles and Uncertainties in the Middle East
