The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has started new offensive tactics against ships in the Strait of Hormuz for about 10 days. According to maritime reports, at least 14 cases of attacks and attempts to attack ships in this strait and its surrounding waters have been recorded in the past week.
Increase in Attacks and Strategic Change
The naval force of the IRGC has claimed responsibility for several attacks and emphasized that "all ships that turn off their navigation and identification systems in the Strait of Hormuz will be identified as hostile and will be dealt with severely and decisively." These two Iranian officials refrained from providing details about their new strategy, but one of them stated that this change has led to an increase in attacks on ships that Tehran believes are violating imposed restrictions.
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According to these officials, this strategy includes changes in the type and rhythm of attacks, and one of its goals is to influence the outcome of the U.S. elections. One official added: "The aim is to thwart the efforts of the U.S. and its allies to reduce global oil prices." The decision to adopt this strategy has been coordinated at the highest levels of Iran's leadership and fully across the country's governance structure.
Use of Observers for Target Identification
An American military official stated that after the destruction of a large part of Iran's radar capabilities, the IRGC has begun using unarmed observers in small boats to identify potential targets, including U.S. Navy vessels. This official added that the U.S. military became aware last week that Iranian observers were operating from a dhow and relaying information about targets to the IRGC.
U.S. forces encountered this vessel and ordered its occupants to leave, then destroyed it. This official emphasized that there were no casualties from this incident. Following U.S. attacks, the Iranian Navy suffered severe damage and lost many of its vessels.
Geographical Scope of Operations Expands
As part of its new strategy, Iran will extend the geographical scope of its operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Oman and further waters. Analysis from maritime security sources suggests that this trend may have already begun. Reports indicate that in recent days, Iran has targeted ships in areas beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including the coastal waters of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
One Iranian official stated that Tehran will not allow U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce oil prices before the November elections. He added: "Just when they think they have come close to a point where prices will drop, we will push them away from that. This is a game of chess."
These officials clarified that Iran is moving towards a situation where no ship violating Iran's restrictions will be able to pass through the strait and added: "Soon the strait will be completely closed." These actions are particularly taking place as the war with Iran and its costs have become one of the main topics of the U.S. election campaigns.
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