A new analysis conducted by Sofar Ocean examines the existing deficiencies in marine forecasts that can lead to dangerous ship rolling and cargo damage. This analysis is based on the incident involving the ice-class vessel Baltic Klipper in December 2025, during which part of the ship's cargo was lost near the Isle of Wight, England.
Deficiencies in Marine Forecasts
Most marine forecasts report wave heights to ships. However, wave height alone cannot identify their impacts on ships. The period and direction of the waves, along with the speed and loading of the ship, can cause dangerous rolling even when the waves do not appear severe. Thus, existing forecasts may be inadequate in identifying the actual sea conditions.
Incident of Baltic Klipper and Conclusions
On the day of the Baltic Klipper incident, the wave heights were not unusually high, but the long wave period exceeded 15 seconds. Standard forecasts failed to identify this risk, while Sofar's forecast, using direct measurements from the previous wave path, identified this risk more than two days before the incident occurred.
This finding is significant, as more ships are choosing maritime routes through areas like Cape of Good Hope. According to an IUMI report in September 2025, claims related to severe weather conditions have significantly increased, which is linked to rerouting of ships in the Red Sea. Cefor has also reported an increase in hull damage claims under severe weather conditions, as ships navigate in areas with reduced visibility and greater danger.
Jessica Tappal, Senior Navigation Specialist at Sofar Ocean, says: "Wave height is only part of what we consider when assessing risk. The timing and direction of the waves, along with the direction and speed of the ship, determine how the ship will actually respond. Two sea states with the same wave height can create very different conditions on the ship."
This analysis also examines major incidents of container loss, including the Svendborg Maersk and CMA CGM G. Washington vessels. In all these cases, weather systems were generally known in advance, but there was a deficiency in describing the wave characteristics that determine ship movement.
Sofar Ocean's analysis shows why measuring the complete wave field is important: direct observations can provide a better understanding of wave period and direction and help identify key hazards that are not detectable by measuring wave height alone.
