Natural gas prices in the European wholesale market decreased on Friday, reaching €78.00 per megawatt-hour (MWh), following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the absence of military attacks against Iran before the country's midterm elections.
Analysis of the Natural Gas Market in Europe
The natural gas contract in the UK also saw a 1.0% decrease, reaching 193 pence per therm. Despite this slight decline on Friday, both gas contracts are on track to record a weekly increase for the second consecutive week and remain near their highest levels in over two weeks. Maritime security threats in the Middle East continue to significantly heighten the risks associated with gas prices for the winter season.
Read more: Baltic Index Drops by 21 Points on October 8, 2026
Maritime Security Risks and Their Impact on the Gas Market
The price drop followed Trump's comments that the United States would not conduct any attacks on Iranian targets before the November elections. This statement temporarily eased fears of a severe military escalation that could completely halt energy traffic in the Persian Gulf. However, tracking data indicates that missile and drone attacks on commercial and energy vessels around the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly level last week.
These ongoing attacks have diminished hopes for a quick normalization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through this key maritime point and have kept war risk insurance rates high, forcing tankers to take longer and more expensive routes away from Africa.
Gas Storage Status in Europe
Gas storage in the European Union has currently reached 73% capacity. While inventories have steadily increased from 66% last month, they remain significantly below historical benchmarks for this time of year. Regional gas network operators have warned that while the system is flexible enough to meet early-season demand, limited LNG inputs could lead to a reduction in Europe's gas storage levels to below 30% by late winter, putting the continent at risk of severe cold later in the season.
Read more: Qatar Energy Supplies an LNG Shipment to Bangladesh · Natural Gas Prices in New England Rise Above $20 for January 2027
