Kenyan farmers are increasingly changing their traditional wheat cultivation to barley. This shift is driven by high demand from beverage producers in Uganda and Tanzania and could be a sign of a wheat shortage in Nairobi.
Reasons for the Shift
According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, Kenyan wheat farmers are turning to barley due to high production costs and import competition for wheat. This transition is relatively easy as both crops (wheat and barley) have similar soil and climatic requirements.
Barley Prices and Quality in Kenya
In Kenya, barley farmers who meet strict quality standards receive a guaranteed base price of up to $0.46 (60 Kenyan Shillings) per kilogram. This rate is approximately seven percent higher than the local wheat price in 2026, which is $0.43 (55.47 Kenyan Shillings) for high-quality wheat.
While lower-quality barley, which is directed to the local animal feed industry, fetches a lower price of around $0.27 to $0.31 (35 to 40 Kenyan Shillings) per kilogram, the regional export market indicates a high economic potential that could pressure the local market.
Kenya's Barley Exports and Their Impact on the Market
In 2025, Kenya's total barley exports reached 39,997 tons, primarily directed to the East African Community markets, especially Uganda and Tanzania. Uganda serves as the main export market, accounting for 38,342 tons of Kenya's total exports, while Tanzania holds a small share of 2.9 percent (1,150 tons).
Despite challenges such as recurrent droughts and input price fluctuations, wheat farmers in these regions are increasingly shifting towards barley cultivation to benefit from more sustainable production and marketing contracts. Barley production in Kenya is heavily concentrated in highland areas with cool climates and reliable rainfall.
Overall, Kenya's barley sector has achieved a strong multi-year recovery after a severe decline due to weather conditions in 2023. Production in 2025 reached 64,800 tons, a success attributed to favorable weather patterns and an increase in cultivated land from 13,929 hectares to 15,000 hectares.
