Kazakhstan has decided to increase its natural gas imports from Russia. Under an agreement signed with the major Russian energy company, Gazprom, the country has agreed to purchase about 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas this year. This amount represents a significant increase from about 4 million bcm in 2025.
Agreements and Challenges
The two sides are still negotiating the purchase of up to 9 bcm more in 2027. Kazakhstan has been a net exporter of natural gas in recent years, with its domestic production reaching a record 68.1 bcm in 2025. However, domestic demand is significantly increasing.
Impact of Sanctions on the Gas Market
The key unknown factor in this import agreement is the price of gas. Gazprom has not disclosed the financial details of this contract, but a favorable rate has likely been offered. The Russian energy industry is an important source of revenue for the Kremlin, which needs this income to finance its war efforts in Ukraine. The ongoing war has closed profitable European markets for Gazprom, forcing the company to offer deep discounts to encourage purchases elsewhere.
The Gazprom agreement may provide Kazakhstan with a low-cost way to meet its growing domestic demand without losing a large portion of its export revenue. At the same time, Uzbekistan, whose domestic gas production has steadily declined in recent years, seems to be implementing a strategy of purchasing Russian gas and selling Uzbek gas at high prices to cover its domestic demand.
In 2025, Uzbekistan's gas exports generated about $629 million in revenue, while imports, mainly from Russia, were recorded at $1.66 billion. Additionally, the decline in Uzbekistan's domestic gas production is rapidly increasing; in the first half of 2026, 18.3 billion bcm was extracted, down from 21.9 bcm in the first half of the previous year.
The sanctions bill passed by the U.S. Congress on September 16, which is likely to be signed by the President, could disrupt the gas import plans of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This bill allows the government to impose punitive tariffs on any country that purchases Russian energy. Furthermore, the gas purchases by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may expose officials from both countries to secondary sanctions.
