The Donald Trump administration is facing new challenges in its policies towards Iran following the midterm congressional election results. This political defeat comes at a time when Trump had predicted in the final weeks of his election campaign that the war with Iran would end immediately after the elections.
Consequences of Republican Defeat
With the loss of both houses of Congress, Republicans are under significant pressure, and Vice President JD Vance has linked this defeat to the war with Iran. Trump has largely agreed with this assessment, stating that he will reconsider his decisions to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
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Possible Scenarios for an Attack on Iran
Analysts point to four scenarios in this regard. The first scenario is a complete resumption of war, which Trump has repeatedly referred to. In this case, military attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, including Khark Island, which is known as Iran's main oil terminal, are likely to increase. Meanwhile, Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert, has predicted that if economic pressures on Iran continue, the likelihood of attacks on the country's energy and economic infrastructure will rise.
The second scenario involves a limited attack on specific sites, such as Mount Pikaaks, which is recognized as one of Iran's nuclear centers. Trump may claim after this attack that Iran's nuclear program has been damaged enough to warrant a retreat in pursuit of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The third scenario is the continuation of the current situation, where Trump may continue defensive strikes and maintain a naval blockade. However, such a situation is not sustainable, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has emphasized the need to end this unproductive state.
The fourth scenario is a temporary agreement that could involve mediation by Qatar. This agreement may lead to a temporary halt in hostilities and a reduction in pressures. Markets seem hopeful for such an agreement, as Brent crude prices fell below $100 per barrel on November 4.
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