Iran's drone attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz have become a concerning issue for oil and energy exports from the Gulf. According to available information, 24 attacks have been reported this month, the latest of which involved the sinking of two Emirati container ships in this waterway.
Significant Decrease in Oil Exports
According to assessments by energy experts, the outflow of crude oil and petrochemical products from the Gulf of Oman has decreased to 9.1 million barrels per day in the last two days. The weekly average of these exports has also reached 13.5 million barrels per day, showing a significant decline from the peak of 17 million barrels in early October.
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These attacks have clearly negatively affected ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and their intensity has reached its highest point since the beginning of the conflicts. Iran appears to be employing a new strategy to target ships, which includes the use of observers in small boats.
Impact on Export Flow and Global Market
New information indicates that oil exports from the Gulf are declining, and this trend could negatively impact the global oil market. New estimates suggest that total crude oil and product exports from the Strait of Hormuz and bypass routes have reached 9.5 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the peak of 16 million barrels and the average of 14 million barrels in September.
Additionally, crude oil loading in the Gulf, excluding Iran, has increased to over 12 million barrels per day in the past two days. Moreover, oil loadings in October have averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, which is at the September average level. Meanwhile, crude oil loadings from the Yanbu port have also not been reported in the past two days, and its average in October has decreased to 1.6 million barrels per day.
While global markets are facing price volatility and uncertainty, it is expected that pressures from maritime attacks and reduced export flow will continuously impact prices. Market experts predict that oil prices will remain at higher levels for a longer period.
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