Iran, as one of the major oil producers in the Middle East, is pursuing a scenario that could bring oil prices to $130 per barrel. This planning comes as at least 50 Iranian tankers carrying oil have been stuck in the Persian Gulf due to U.S. sanctions since early October.
Iran's Budget Scenarios
According to published reports, Iran's economic planning for the upcoming Persian calendar year, which begins in March 2026, includes a scenario assuming an oil price of $130 per barrel. However, it is unclear what basis Iranian economists will choose for next year's budget. The Planning and Budget Organization is likely to consider a scenario assuming $130, although this price has traditionally been forecast conservatively in Iran's budgets.
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Impact of Sanctions on Iran's Oil Exports
Despite the potential increase in oil prices, Iran may not benefit from this rise due to U.S. sanctions that have severely restricted the country's oil exports. Reports indicate that by early October, U.S. sanctions in the Gulf of Oman had led to at least 50 Iranian tankers being stuck. These tankers are unable to unload their cargo due to new restrictions.
Sanctions were reinstated following the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the nuclear deal, and the U.S. Navy has continued the sanctions in the Gulf of Oman unchanged since mid-July. The aim of these sanctions is to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero and gain leverage in negotiations.
Iran finds itself in a situation where, despite public claims of being able to circumvent sanctions, statistics and data indicate that the country's oil exports have decreased since August. Additionally, Iran's oil storage is declining, and according to Kpler data, floating oil storage has reached 866,000 barrels, significantly down from 150 million barrels before the sanctions.
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