As winter 1405 approaches, Iran is facing serious challenges in gas and electricity supply. The recent war has inflicted significant damage on the country's gas and electricity infrastructure, raising concerns about Iran's ability to get through the cold months of the year.
Damage to Gas and Electricity Facilities
On October 20, the spokesperson for the Parliament's Article 90 Commission reported on the difficulties ahead and referred to the damage inflicted on four refineries of the South Pars gas complex. Farshid Shakerkhodai, a member of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, also warned about the gas shortage in winter and pointed out that due to this shortage, there is a possibility of burning mazut in power plants and severe air pollution.
However, officials have announced that the repair of damaged facilities is underway at a rapid pace, and a significant portion of the lost capacity has returned to operation. Additionally, Russian contractors are participating in this process, which could alleviate concerns about energy supply in winter.
War Damages to the Gas and Electricity Industry
Attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure began in Esfand 1404, and on March 27, the most severe damages were inflicted on the South Pars gas refineries. According to Saeed Tavakkoli, CEO of the National Iranian Gas Company, nearly 8,000 points of the gas production, transmission, and distribution network have been damaged. Estimates show that Iran has faced a significant reduction by losing one-third of its gas production capacity during the recent war.
Gholamreza Dehghan Nasrabadi, a member of the Energy Commission of the Parliament, has estimated the damages to the South Pars facilities at around four billion dollars and stated that the losses due to reduced activity of these complexes amount to nearly two million dollars per day. Furthermore, Iran's annual gas imbalance, which was estimated at 45 billion cubic meters before the war, has now reached about 100 billion cubic meters.
In the electricity sector, the recent war has also led to the loss of 4,200 megawatts of electricity generation capacity. Mohammad Elahdad, CEO of Tavanir, announced that more than two thousand points of the electricity distribution network have been damaged, and the total damages to the electricity industry have exceeded 60 trillion tomans. Among the damaged facilities are 711 overhead and underground distribution substations and 591 kilometers of medium voltage network.
Similarly, the Ahmad Kazemi combined cycle power plant, with a nominal capacity of 914 megawatts, has also been damaged during the attacks. Given the significant damages, concerns about sustainable energy supply in the cold season have increased.
In light of this situation, one of the main questions is how much of the damaged capacity has returned to operation and how far the reconstruction process has progressed. The upcoming challenges, along with previous imbalances, paint a bleak outlook for energy supply in the coming winter.
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