Experts have significantly raised their oil price forecasts for 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in maritime traffic from the Strait of Hormuz. According to a recent survey, the average price of Brent crude oil has increased to $89.05 per barrel, which is a significant rise from $85.08 last month.
Increase in West Texas Oil Prices
A survey of 30 economists and experts has also raised the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil to $83.90 per barrel, up from $80.20 in last month's survey. The forecasts for Brent oil prices in this survey range from $77.27 to $97.60, indicating uncertainty about the return of traffic in this waterway.
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Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Some other experts have little hope for the complete return of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. HSBC believes that the recovery of traffic will be gradual and describes the current situation of the strait as "structurally damaged," as liquid flows have not yet reached the approximate level of 19 to 20 million barrels per day that passed through this waterway before the war.
DBS Bank also predicts that this crisis will not be resolved in the next three to six months. However, Gulf producers have managed to restore a significant portion of their exports. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including shipments from vessels that have turned off their positions, reached 23.3 million barrels per day last week, nearly equal to the 2025 average.
China's Import Outlook
China remains an uncertain source in the oil market. It is expected that China's crude oil imports will strengthen due to reduced war inventories and the approach of winter demand. However, FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have reduced their import forecasts for the fourth quarter by about 400,000 barrels per day.
OPEC is unlikely to provide a significant amount of additional supply in the short term. The group expects to maintain its current production targets at the meeting on Sunday. EIU analysts have noted that weak manufacturing activity and slow global economic growth should prevent oil prices from returning to pre-war high levels.
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