Oil exports from the Middle East have approached pre-war levels, specifically, exports from the Strait of Hormuz have reached 13 million barrels per day. This increase is primarily due to the rise in exports from Saudi Arabia.
JP Morgan's Analysis of Oil Flows
According to a report by JP Morgan, daily oil flows in September averaged 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98 percent of pre-war levels. Additionally, fuel exports during this period increased to 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58 percent of the pre-war daily average. This bank has introduced its analysts as witnesses to the return of export flows in the Middle East.
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Conflicting Opinions and Various Assessments
While JP Morgan has pointed to a strong return of oil flows, Goldman Sachs has provided a higher estimate for oil flow in the Gulf, stating it at 23.3 million barrels per day. This estimate indicates a nearing of daily averages for 2025. Goldman analysts have noted the diversity in exports, stating that Saudi Arabia's exports in September more than doubled and exceeded the 2025 average.
In contrast, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset has estimated oil exports from the Gulf at 17 million barrels per day, only "occasionally". Additionally, the CEO of TotalEnergies has stated that daily exports from the Strait of Hormuz average 10 million barrels. This discrepancy in estimates reflects the complexities present in the oil market and the tensions in the region.
Overall, despite the increase in oil flows, some analysts warn that this increase does not imply improved safety and rather indicates the industry's ability to operate under hazardous conditions. While the Strait of Hormuz remains a key route for oil exports, security challenges and political tensions will continue to impact the oil market.
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