The dry cargo market in 2026 has been influenced by the growing demand for capesize vessels. With the increase in the volume of bauxite exports from Guinea to China, the sea distances and vessel utilization rates have also risen. In this context, the average loading distance per week reached 218.31 billion ton-miles, which is 5.3% higher than 207.24 billion ton-miles in 2025.
Significant Growth in Vessel Earnings
This strong demand has been directly reflected in transportation performance. The BCI index averaged 4,068 points in 2026, indicating an approximately 80% increase compared to 2,261 points in 2025. This index reached 3,108 at the beginning of 2026 and peaked at 5,939 by September 24, reaching 6,427 in early September.
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Vessel earnings have also significantly increased in 2026. The average daily earnings for this year reached about $36,900, showing an almost 80% improvement from $20,500 in 2025. In early September 2026, the market temporarily reached $58,300 per day and remained above $52,000 at the end of September.
Positive Impacts on the Second-Hand Vessel Market
The improvement in market conditions has also influenced the second-hand vessel market. In March 2025, the capesize vessel "Mont Austin" built in 2010 was sold for around $27 million. In contrast, in August 2026, similar vessels "Mont Dampier" and "Orange Tiger" built in 2011 were sold for $38 million and $37 million, respectively. This indicates an increase of about $10 million for Japanese vessels of similar age.
This trend is also evident in younger vessels. The vessel "Bulk Ginza" built in 2020 was sold for around $64 million in June 2025, while the vessel "Lady Dina" built in 2020 was sold for around $71 million in July 2026. Overall, the volume of cargo, loading distances, transportation earnings, and second-hand prices point to a stronger improvement in the capesize market in 2026.
With the increase in demand for long-distance cargoes, the utilization of vessels has strengthened, which in turn has contributed to higher earnings and values of second-hand assets. It seems that the fundamentals of the capesize market in 2026 are significantly stronger than in 2025, and improvements are widely observed across the supply chain.
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