Gustavo Pimenta, CEO of Vale, at the FT Metals and Mining Conference held from October 14 to 16 in London, analyzed the state of the iron ore market. He stated that the iron ore market will remain balanced in the long term despite a decrease in steel production in China. This balance is due to the supply of new resources from the Simandou field in Guinea and the demand for high-purity iron ore.
Production Capacity of the Simandou Field
Pimenta stated at the conference that the Simandou field, which is expected to reach a production capacity of 120 million tons per year by 2030, could help offset the decrease in iron ore resources. According to him, it is estimated that currently about 60 to 80 million tons of iron ore are being removed from the market annually, and this field could compensate for that reduction.
Effects of Decreased Steel Production in China
Pimenta also referred to a 3.1% decrease in crude steel production in China, which has reached 651.9 million tons from January to August 2026. He emphasized that China remains an important market for iron ore producers, and significant growth is observed in its production sector. Other countries like Vietnam and India are also increasing their steel production, which could help the demand for iron ore in the future.
Pimenta also highlighted Vale's role as a supplier of iron ore with low alumina content. This feature makes the company's iron ore products face higher demand in the market, as steel producers need to blend raw materials with better chemical properties with lower-quality iron ores.
Finally, Pimenta predicted that Vale's revenue share from the copper sector is also increasing, and this sector could account for up to 40% of the company's EBITDA. Currently, this share is 30%. Vale expects to increase its copper production from 380,000 tons to 700,000 tons, primarily in Carajas, Brazil, with minimal investment.
