Goldman Sachs has informed investors in a report that the U.S. diesel export ban will have limited direct effects on global economic growth, with Latin America being the most vulnerable region in this regard. This analysis also points to rising consumer prices in the United States.
Increase in Refined Product Margins
According to Goldman Sachs' report, the margins on refined products have significantly increased since March 2023, and the threat of a diesel export ban has raised concerns about further price increases. Analysts at the bank estimate that this ban could reduce retail diesel prices in the United States by 25 cents per gallon for each week the ban is in effect. This translates to a slight decrease of 2 to 3 basis points in the U.S. inflation rate after one month.
Read more: AD Ports Group Successfully Completed the Purchase of CLI Brazil
Economic Impacts on Latin America and Other Regions
Goldman Sachs has pointed out that each week of the diesel export ban could increase retail gasoline prices in the United States by 30 cents per gallon, so this small decrease in inflation may reverse after about two months, leading to increased inflation for consumers. Using global input-output tables, Goldman estimates that a sudden cut in diesel supply from the United States could reduce GDP in Latin America by about 1 percent, while reserves and increased exports from other regions will mitigate this impact.
Outside the Americas, Goldman Sachs predicts small direct effects on economic activity, given the lower dependence on U.S. imports and the likelihood of rapid reallocation of supply. Considering the global nature of the diesel market, the bank expects supply to adjust quickly, and as a result, price increases will remain the primary economic impact. It is estimated that any sustained 10 percent increase in diesel prices could add 0.1 percentage points to global inflation and 0.03 percentage points to core inflation, with larger effects in Asia and Europe.
Read more: Increase in Soybean Imports to China in 2026 · Lee Jae-myung Proposed Collaboration with Trump on Shipbuilding in New York
