OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in its interim report on the economic outlook for September 2026 has forecast that global GDP growth will reach 2.9% this year and 3.0% in 2027. This forecast is made under conditions where pressures from commodity price shocks continue persistently.
Challenges Facing Economic Growth
According to Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of OECD, "Global growth has been better than expected, but the buffer that absorbed the energy shock is diminishing." He also pointed to rising inflation, stating: "Growth has been weaker compared to last year, and inflation is rising again."
OECD has warned that economic growth will face multiple challenges until the end of 2026 and early 2027. The organization also emphasized the need for targeting government assistance in sensitive areas and the importance of establishing foundations for long-term growth.
Commodity Price Forecasts and Their Impacts
Forecasts indicate that purchasing costs may come under pressure as policy rates are rising. OECD has predicted that Brent crude oil prices will average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, and European TTF gas prices will reach €82 per megawatt hour. These prices are then expected to decline steadily, averaging $85 per barrel and €60 per megawatt hour in 2027.
In terms of trade, OECD believes that effective tariff rates will remain at mid-levels in September 2026, indicating a lack of expectation for widespread reductions in tariff barriers. This situation is particularly significant in the context of trade in AI-related goods, which is recognized as a key pillar of global trade demand.
Another point is that inflation remains a serious threat to this outlook and trade costs. It is expected that overall G20 inflation will rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.1% this year.
Given the existing instabilities in energy markets and rising food commodity prices, OECD warns that disruptions could impact global growth and lead to a 0.7% reduction in global growth in 2027.
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