In his recent report, Gabson examines the state of the oil market and the export capacities of U.S. crude oil. One of the key questions in this regard is whether the proposed infrastructure focused on VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) will be implemented and whether it will increase export capacity. Currently, this issue is facing uncertainty.
Export Infrastructure Status
Of the four proposed deep-water terminals, only the Texas GulfLink project, owned by Sentinel Midstream, is progressing. This terminal received its permit in February 2026, and construction began in May. The goal of this project is to launch in the fourth quarter of 2028. In contrast, the SPOT project owned by Enterprise, which received its permit in 2024, still does not have a positive FID and seems to have stalled.
The Blue Marlin project owned by Energy Transfer has also not received any permits, and the company has shifted its focus to upstream investments, particularly in natural gas. Additionally, the Bluewater Texas project, which is being carried out in collaboration with Phillips 66 and Trafigura, is facing EPA permitting issues.
Challenges of U.S. Crude Oil Exports
According to Gabson, U.S. VLCC crude oil exports are heavily reliant on the "reverse lighting" method. The share of VLCCs in PADD 3 crude oil exports increased to about 50 percent in May and June but dropped to less than 30 percent in August and rose again to about 45 percent in September. Meanwhile, Aframax vessels still hold a significant share of exports.
This dependence on the lighting method could limit VLCC export capacity, and rising project costs have become a serious challenge for U.S. energy export projects. Increases in labor costs, building materials, and legal and regulatory expenses could lead to economic and commercial reductions in projects, necessitating serious monitoring.
If these pressures prevent the launch of new VLCC terminals in PADD 3, U.S. crude oil exports will be affected in the long term. This will have clear implications for the marketing of U.S. crude oil to Asia, where long-term trading principles favor VLCCs.
