Venezuela's oil production is expected to reach 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million barrels per day by 2030, according to Rystad Energy. This progress is due to increased international activity in Venezuela's upstream oil sector and the entry of new operators into the market. These changes are occurring as oil infrastructure and field services are being rebuilt and developed.
Infrastructure Development and New Investments
Major companies, including Chevron, have projected over $7 billion in investments over the next five years by adding the Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A fields to their portfolio. Additionally, Eni has exclusively taken responsibility for the Junin 5 field under a 25-year production sharing contract. Repsol has regained operational control of the Petroquiriquire field, and Shell has returned to the Carito and Pirital fields through reconstruction agreements.
Read more: South Pars is ready for sustainable gas production in winter
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite investment plans, there are operational challenges. According to a report by Baker Hughes, only two active drilling rigs were operating in Venezuela in August, while the Ministry of Hydrocarbons has set a target of achieving 93 drilling rigs by 2028. Rystad Energy estimates that to achieve the desired production trajectory, drilling activities must reach about 50 rigs by 2028 and 80 rigs by 2030.
Production activities in the short term will largely rely on field rehabilitation and well revitalization, with expected production increases from the NABEP fields in Lake Maracaibo, Chevron's Petropiar and Petroboscan fields, and Eni's Corocoro field. Furthermore, NABEP has demonstrated through three production sharing contracts that reinvestment can positively impact production.
It is expected that by the 2030s, production growth will shift towards new (greenfield) fields, with Chevron's Ayacucho 8, Eni's Junin 5, and the newly awarded NABEP blocks serving as the foundation for this transition. Additionally, new agreements with international companies such as Continental Resources and TotalEnergies indicate a growing interest from investors in Venezuela's oil market.
Read more: Ukrainian airstrikes on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia · Lee Jae-myung proposed collaboration in shipbuilding with Trump in New York
