On October 10, 2026, India published a draft National Steel Policy titled "Vision 2047" for public consultation. This policy purposefully forecasts that steel production capacity will increase from the current 220 million tons to 604 million tons, and crude steel production will rise from 164 million tons in 2025 to 531 million tons.
Raw Material Requirements
Annual demand for iron ore is expected to reach 772 million tons, demand for coking coal to 236 million tons, and scrap consumption to 123 million tons. Despite being recognized as the second-largest steel producer in the world, the main challenge here is securing vast amounts of raw materials to support this expansion.
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Changes in the Iron Ore Market
The Indian iron ore market is undergoing a structural transformation. With an increasing share of domestic iron ore production by steel producers, exports have decreased and imports have risen. Iron ore exports have fallen from 52 million tons in 2020 to 27 million tons in 2025, while imports have exceeded 12 million tons.
This trend is expected to accelerate. In the fiscal year 2024-2025, India set a new record with iron ore production of 289 million tons. However, increasing annual production to a level that can meet the 772 million tons demand will require unprecedented development in mining, processing, and transportation infrastructure.
Challenges in Coking Coal Supply
Coking coal demand is also recognized as a significant issue in transportation. India's coking coal imports are expected to rise from 68.6 million tons in 2025 to 80.3 million tons by 2031. However, the draft policy sets the total coking coal demand at 236 million tons by 2047.
Currently, India meets about 92% of its coking coal needs through imports, and this demand is expected to increase significantly. If dependence on imports is reduced to 80-90%, annual coking coal imports could reach 190-210 million tons by 2047.
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