The average price of Brent oil is expected to reach $92.88 per barrel in 2026, reflecting the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on global markets. This forecast is based on a survey of 32 economists and analysts.
Market Analysis and Geopolitical Tensions
According to this survey conducted on October 30, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is also projected to rise from $83.90 to $86.60 per barrel. Analysts believe that restrictions on energy flow in the Middle East and a return to pre-war conditions in trade routes and production capacities will be a time-consuming process.
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The war between the United States and Israel with Iran, which began in late February, has intensified pressure on energy markets. Conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, which previously accounted for half of the world's energy flow, have become a focal point of tensions. Research institutions' data indicates that October was the worst month in terms of attacks on commercial vessels in this strait and adjacent waterways.
Physical Market Status and Price Structure
In the physical oil market, the price difference between various types of oil and the Brent benchmark has reached unprecedented levels. The futures market is also facing a phenomenon known as "backwardation," indicating severe demand pressure and short-term supply shortages. Kim Fastier, head of oil and gas research for Europe at HSBC, stated that despite the rapid return of liquid flows from Hormuz, the physical market is under pressure from supply shortages due to high shipping costs and the current price structure.
Analysts warn that high prices may increase pressure on consumption. Recent disruptions are estimated to have caused a reduction of about 5 million barrels in daily demand, especially in low-income countries. Demand is expected to face a decline of 2.5 million barrels in 2026, but this decrease will not be sufficient to compensate for the supply shortage.
Ultimately, the majority of survey participants believe that OPEC+ members will avoid major changes in their policies in the short term, and production targets for December are expected to remain stable.
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