Gas forecasts in Europe indicate serious uncertainties regarding future prices. Energy models require complex analyses to determine gas prices and investments. In recent years, Europe has faced multiple challenges regarding gas prices and energy supply. The latest published forecasts suggest that gas prices will average around €0.20 to €0.25 per cubic meter by 2030.
Gas Price Analysis and Upcoming Challenges
In September 2026, gas prices in the Dutch market (TTF) were trading at approximately €72 per megawatt-hour, which is equivalent to €0.70 per cubic meter and nearly three times the long-term forecasts of existing models. This price increase well illustrates the instability and uncertainty present in the gas market.
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Economic and Political Impacts on Gas Prices
Gas is not just a simple input for economic calculations. Its price depends on various factors including weather conditions, storage levels, Asian demand, LNG export capacity, and geopolitical crises. In 2022, reduced supply from Russia pushed TTF prices above €300 per megawatt-hour. However, it is expected that with the expansion of global LNG supply in 2026, the market will stabilize. Yet, political crises, such as those in the Middle East, could disrupt LNG supply again.
Energy models require a price hypothesis to forecast gas prices. These hypotheses help analysts calculate household costs, industrial competition, and energy prices. However, the mistake begins when policymakers treat these hypotheses as a probable future. Gas price volatility directly affects household and industrial costs, making accurate and realistic analyses essential.
Reports indicate that gas price fluctuations added nearly €13 billion to the wholesale electricity costs of the European Union in the first 16 weeks of 2026. In contrast, renewable capacities installed since 2010 have saved about €29 billion during the same period.
The Necessity of Policy-Making Based on Uncertainty
Policymakers should refrain from precise gas price forecasts and instead focus on examining reasonable investments in the face of a range of gas price outcomes. Every major calculation in energy policy should include at least one sustainable scenario with low gas prices, a central scenario, a high gas price scenario, and a shock scenario. These analyses should include average fuel costs as well as the long-term implications of investments.
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