DNV's new analysis examines the effects of regulations on the maritime transport industry and concludes that legal uncertainties have become one of the most important influencing factors on fleet strategies. Øyvind Sekkesæter, Senior Consultant at DNV and the lead author of this report, states: "Today's decisions regarding ship design, upgrades, and fuel capabilities will determine competitiveness for decades. Meanwhile, the outcomes of ongoing regulatory negotiations could significantly alter the economics of energy transition in the maritime transport industry."
Regulatory Scenarios and Their Impact on the Industry
DNV's 2026 report, with a scenario-based approach, introduces four possible futures for maritime transport regulations. These scenarios include full acceptance of the IMO carbon neutrality framework and, conversely, non-acceptance and prolonged political entanglement. Additionally, scenarios where regional regulations play a larger role in advancing decarbonization have been examined. These scenarios illustrate how different futures can affect fuel demand, the adoption of efficient energies, investment signals, and fleet competitiveness.
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Energy Savings Potential in the Fleet
To achieve the full energy savings potential in the fleet, attention must be paid to improvements in new ships as well as existing ships through upgrades. For example, a report examines a 5,000 TEU container ship built in 2013, which has received an investment of $2.35 million for upgrades. This ship could achieve approximately 16% fuel savings by implementing hydrodynamic improvements. Furthermore, an investment assessment in three price scenarios for low-sulfur heavy fuel oil (LSHFO) shows that payback periods vary from 1.4 years to 4.2 years.
This report also predicts that by 2038, the net value of savings from these upgrades will reach between $2 million and $10 million. Sekkesæter emphasizes that even a 15-year-old ship can present a compelling business case for energy-saving upgrades.
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